MTSU Poll

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Support for stricter laws on gun sales has jumped to 58 percent among Tennessee registered voters, according to an MTSU Poll taken during the same week as the “March for Our Lives” demonstrations in Washington D.C. and around the country.

The latest level of support represents a 24-point climb from the 34 percent support measured two years ago using the same question. Support for stricter laws on carrying guns has risen, too, from 34 percent two years ago to 46 percent now, a rise of 12 points.

“It remains to be seen how enduring these opinion shifts will prove to be,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “But they are notable all the same, given their size, the speed with which they occurred, and the fact that they happened in a state where, as other findings from the same poll show, most voters still approve of the National Rifle Association, and about half favor letting teachers and administrators carry guns on school grounds.”

Meanwhile, in findings related to another recent, high-profile protest movement, the poll found that 55 percent of state voters think recent allegations of sexual harassment and assault made against prominent men in entertainment, politics and media reflect “widespread problems in society” rather than “isolated incidents of individual misconduct.”

The scientifically valid telephone poll of 600 randomly selected registered Tennessee voters was conducted March 22-29 and has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

Support for stricter gun laws rises sharply

Asked, “In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?”

• 58 percent answered “More strict,” up 24 points from 34 percent in 2016, the last time the MTSU Poll included the question.
• 6 percent answered “Less strict,” down 11 points from 17 percent in 2016.
• 33 percent answered, “Kept as they are now,” down 11 points from 44 percent in 2016.

The rest said they didn’t know or declined to answer the question. All changes are greater than the poll’s error margins.

Asked the follow-up question, “What about carrying guns? In general, do you think laws covering carrying guns should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?”

• 46 percent answered “More strict,” a 12-point climb from 34 percent in 2016.
• 11 percent answered “Less strict,” a seven-point drop from 18 percent in 2016.
• 39 percent answered “Kept as they are,” a four-point drop from 43 percent in 2016.

The rest gave no answer or didn’t know. The latter two changes fall within the poll’s error margins.

Despite rising support for stricter laws on selling and carrying guns, though, the poll found that 58 percent of Tennessee voters hold mostly or very favorable views of the National Rifle Association, while only 36 percent hold mostly or very unfavorable views of the organization. The remaining 6 percent don’t know or give no answer.

Furthermore, 49 percent agree with the NRA that teachers and administrators should be allowed to carry guns on school grounds. A statistically similar 43 percent oppose allowing teachers and administrators to be armed while at school, and the rest don’t know or decline to answer.

“The ‘March for Our Lives’ demonstrations may have prompted a sudden change in Tennessee opinion toward laws governing selling and carrying guns, or this change might have developed more gradually during the two years since our last poll on the topic,” said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll.

‘#MeToo’ indicates societywide problems, voters say

In other findings, a 55 percent majority of Tennessee voters think recent allegations of sexual harassment and assault made against prominent men in entertainment, politics and media reflect “widespread problems in society.” Only 33 percent see them as “isolated incidents of individual misconduct.”

Awareness of the allegations is high among state voters, with 70 percent saying they have read or heard “a lot” about the subject, 22 percent saying they have heard “a little,” and only 7 percent saying they have heard “nothing at all.”

Broken down by gender:

• 59 percent of women see the allegations as evidence of societywide problems, significantly more than the 50 percent of men who give the same answer.
• Only 28 percent of women – and a significantly greater 37 percent of men – see the allegations as stemming from isolated, individual misconduct.
• About 13 percent of both groups don’t know or don’t answer.

The scientifically valid poll of 600 registered Tennessee voters reached by Issues & Answers Network Inc. interviewers via randomly selected cell and landline phone numbers. The poll is supported by MTSU’s College of Media and Entertainment as well as by the School of Journalism and Strategic Media.

Toplines

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Solid majorities of Tennessee voters express support for immigrants in the country illegally, especially the so-called “Dreamers” who were brought to the country as children, according to the latest MTSU Poll.

In other results that may raise eyebrows, a broad majority of Tennessee voters support at least limited marijuana legalization. Even 51 percent of self-identified evangelical Christians surveyed say they support legalization for medicinal use.

When asked about people who immigrated to and are currently living in the United States illegally:

• 55 percent of Tennessee voters say they should be allowed to stay in the country and apply for citizenship
• 33 percent say those immigrants should be required to leave
• 4 percent say they should be allowed to stay, but not be allowed to apply for citizenship
• The rest say they don’t know or refuse to answer the question

Nearly identical results emerged when the MTSU Poll last posed the question, in February 2017.

When asked about immigrants who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children — some of whom qualify under the currently contested Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, policy and who are sometimes referred to as “Dreamers”:

• 75 percent of Tennessee voters say these immigrants should be allowed to stay and apply for citizenship
• 16 percent say they should be required to leave
• 6 percent say these immigrants should be allowed to stay but should not be allowed to apply for citizenship
• The rest say they don’t know or refused to answer the question

Views on immigration track closely with opinions on President Trump. Fifty-one percent of those who approve of the job Trump is doing as president say immigrants residing in the country illegally should be required to leave, while 74 percent of those who disapprove of the job Trump is doing say they should be allowed to stay and apply for citizenship.

But when asked about immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children, even 60 percent of Trump supporters said they should be allowed to stay and apply for citizenship, while 93 percent of those who disapprove of Trump’s job performance say they should be allowed to do the same.

Trump recently tweeted that “DACA is dead,” blaming Mexico for allowing immigrants to illegally cross into the U.S. and Democrats for failing to act on the issue.

“Immigration continues to be a nationally politicized issue for Tennessee voters,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the MTSU Poll. “But even among those who approve of President Trump, who has taken a hard line on the issue, most believe that those brought here as children should be allowed to stay.”

Tenn. voters support marijuana legalization, but differ on extent

Meanwhile, when asked about marijuana legalization:

• 81 percent of Tennessee voters say it should be legalized to some degree
  • However, only 37 percent say it should be legal for personal use;
  • And 44 percent say it should only be legal for medicinal use.
• 16 percent say it should remain entirely illegal.

A bill to legalize marijuana for medicinal use in Tennessee failed to advance out of the state’s Senate Judiciary Committee when it was withdrawn by its sponsor, Republican Steve Dickerson of Nashville, on April 3.

“If we assume that Tennessee voters who support legalization for personal use would also accept legalization for medicinal purposes only, there is a broad majority who support legalization in at least a limited form,” said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll.

Religious identification best explains differences of opinion on the marijuana issue. Fifty-six percent of the Tennessee voters surveyed describe themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians. Of this group, 51 percent say marijuana should be legal for medicinal use only. Among those who say they are not born-again or evangelical Christians, 52 percent say marijuana should be legal in Tennessee for personal use.

The scientifically valid poll of 600 registered Tennessee voters reached by Issues & Answers Network Inc. interviewers via randomly selected cell and landline phone numbers was conducted March 22-29 and has an error margin of 4 percentage points. The poll is supported by MTSU’s College of Media and Entertainment as well as by the School of Journalism and Strategic Media.

Toplines

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Former Tennessee Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen holds a 10-percentage-point lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn among state voters in a head-to-head contest for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, according to the latest MTSU Poll.

Apparent voter favorites in the race for governor, meanwhile, include Republicans Randy Boyd, Diane Black and Beth Harwell as well as Democrat Karl Dean, and approval of President Donald Trump stands at 50 percent, unchanged from last October’s MTSU Poll.

The race for U.S. Senate

In the race for U.S. Senate, 45 percent of Tennessee registered voters said they would choose Bredesen if the election were held tomorrow, while 35 percent said they would select Blackburn. Another 17 percent said they weren’t sure, and the rest declined to answer.

“Bredesen is off to a good start, and Blackburn has some ground to make up,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “But neither candidate has a majority, and with 17 percent undecided, four months to go until the primary and another three after that until the general, this is still either candidate’s race to win – or lose.”

Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll, said Bredesen appears significantly more successful at attracting voters from outside his own party than Blackburn is at attracting voters from outside hers.

“For example, 45 percent of self-described independents said they would vote for Bredesen, while only 33 percent of independents said they would vote for Blackburn,” Reineke said.

“Bredesen attracted more cross-party voting, too,” Reineke added. “Twenty percent of Republicans said they would vote for Bredesen, while only 5 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Blackburn. Our polling during Bredesen’s time as governor showed him consistently attracting appreciable support among Republicans and independents as well as among his fellow Democrats. That record may be paying dividends for him now.”

 Governor’s race still getting sorted out

Meanwhile, favorability ratings among all state voters for gubernatorial candidates Boyd, Black, Harwell and Dean range from 30 percent for Boyd and Black to 26 percent for Dean and 23 percent for Harwell. Given the poll’s error margin of plus-or-minus four percentage points, the results can’t determine which, if any, of the four leads the others. However, the results do indicate that Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Craig Fitzhugh, both with 16 percent approval, significantly trail Boyd, Black and Dean.

The only within-party difference the poll could detect was the significant gap between Lee’s 28 percent favorability rating among the sample’s 207 self-identified Republicans compared to the 47 percent and 49 percent favorability ratings for Boyd and Black, respectively, among the same respondents. Notably, large segments of the electorate say they neither favor nor oppose the candidates (between 19 and 27 percent) or don’t know how they feel about the candidates (between 13 and 32 percent), an indication that these attitudes are still forming.

Trump’s approval holding steady

The poll also found that 50 percent of Tennessee voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 41 percent disapprove, 8 percent don’t know, and the rest decline to answer. Similarly, 46 percent think Trump deserves re-election, 44 percent think he doesn’t, and 10 percent don’t know or give no answer.

The president’s approval numbers are virtually unchanged from this past October, when the MTSU Poll found that 50 percent approved, 40 percent disapproved, and 10 percent didn’t know or gave no answer. Trump’s national approval figures during the poll’s field period showed nearly the reverse of those in Tennessee, with only about 41 percent approval and about 53 percent disapproval.

“The president’s stable approval ratings in Tennessee could be a positive sign for Blackburn, who has been aligning herself with him in her campaign advertising,” Blake said. “But the same numbers indicate he is a polarizing figure, which could be a problem for Blackburn if she ends up needing help from voters outside Trump’s base.”

Approval for other key leaders

Looking at state voters’ approval of other key political leaders:

• 41 percent approve of Sen. Corker, compared to 45 percent in October
• 39 percent approve of Sen. Lamar Alexander, compared to 45 percent in October
• 58 percent approve of Gov. Bill Haslam, compared to 56 percent in October
• 47 percent approve of the Tennessee Legislature, compared to 48 percent in October
• 14 percent approve of the U.S. Congress, compared to 13 percent in October.

The scientifically valid poll of 600 registered Tennessee voters reached by Issues & Answers Network Inc. interviewers via randomly selected cell and landline phone numbers was conducted March 22-29 and has an error margin of 4 percentage points. The poll is supported by MTSU’s College of Media and Entertainment as well as by the School of Journalism and Strategic Media.

Toplines

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Marsha Blackburn leads in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, Karl Dean leads in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and Phil Bredesen probably would be leading in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary if he were a declared candidate, the latest MTSU Poll finds.

Meanwhile, nobody has established a clear lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary or the general-election races for governor and Senate.

“Some frontrunners seem to have emerged in some of the primary races, but it’s much too early to forecast winners, even in the primaries that presently look lopsided,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University.

“All of these candidates have double-digit percentages of undecided voters, both among voters from their own parties and from across the Tennessee electorate as a whole. Any of the races easily could shift during the months ahead.”

Here’s a synopsis of the standings in each race, according to the poll:

• In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, 55 percent of Republican voters approve or strongly approve of Blackburn, the representative for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Andy Ogles trails with 19 percent approval, as does Larry Crim, with 12 percent approval. Blackburn’s lead is statistically significant, given the poll’s error margin among self-identified Republicans.
• In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, former Nashville mayor Karl Dean has the approval of 49 percent of Democrats. The only other Democratic gubernatorial candidate considered in the poll, Craig Fitzhugh, drew a significantly smaller 26 percent approval.
• In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 60 percent of Democratic voters approve or strongly approve of Bredesen, a former Tennessee governor. Thirty-two percent express such approval of Andy Berke, and 28 percent express such approval of James Mackler. Bredesen’s lead is outside the error margin for the subgroup who self-identified as Democrats. But while both Bredesen and Berke have said they are thinking of running, neither man has declared himself a candidate. Mackler was the only declared Democratic candidate for Senate included in the poll.
• The Republican gubernatorial primary offers the least clarity for now. Diane Black, Tennessee’s 6th Congressional District representative, led in the sample with 33 percent approval. But rival Republican Beth Harwell, speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives, had the approval of a statistically indistinguishable 32 percent of the sample. Randy Boyd came in at 28 percent approval, and Mae Beavers at 21 percent approval. But the poll’s error margin for self-described Republican voters was too wide to indicate which, if any, of these candidates was leading the pack. The poll could determine only that Bill Lee, at 15 percent approval among Republicans, was significantly behind the approval ratings for Harwell and Black.
• In the race for Tennessee governor among all Tennessee voters – Democrats, Republicans, independents and others – Harwell, a Republican, and Dean, a Democrat, both attract 23 percent approval, followed closely by three Republicans: Black, at 22 percent approval; Boyd, at 17 percent approval; and Beavers, at 15 percent approval. The poll’s overall error margin of 4 percentage points could not estimate which, if any, of these candidates was ahead. It could, however, identify the remaining two candidates, Fitzhugh and Lee, as significantly trailing Harwell, Dean and Black.
• Finally, in the race for U.S. Senate among all Tennessee voters, approval for Blackburn, a Republican, stands at 37 percent, statistically indistinguishable from approval of Bredesen, a Democrat, at 34 percent. Both polled significantly higher on approval than did Berke (18 percent), Ogles (14 percent), Mackler (13 percent), and Crim (7 percent).

All results are based on questions that presented the declared or potential candidates for each race one at a time, in a random order, and asked whether the respondent strongly favored, favored, neither favored nor opposed, opposed, or strongly opposed that person’s being elected. The U.S. Senate results did not include results for Republican Stephen Fincher, who declared his candidacy near the end of the poll’s field period and too late to gather meaningful data about attitudes toward him. More detailed crosstabs of approval by party affiliation are available for download in Excel format.

Consisting of interviews with 600 registered Tennessee voters reached via randomly selected cell and landline phone numbers, the scientifically valid poll was conducted Oct. 16-23 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Disapproval of Republican Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker has risen to 41 percent among Tennessee voters, according to the latest MTSU Poll, a 14-point climb since last spring and in the wake of his public feud with President Donald Trump.

Disapproval of Trump edged up, too, from 32 to 40 percent during the same period. But Trump’s approval held steady at 50 percent, well above the national approval rate of about 37 percent. Corker’s approval dropped from 52 percent in the spring to 45 percent now, putting his approval rate below Trump’s but in the same range, given the poll’s 4-percentage-point error margin.

“Essentially, Corker’s negatives have increased markedly, but he has ended up only a bit behind Trump in terms of approval, and possibly on par with him,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “Meanwhile, some undecideds have switched to disapproval of President Trump, but Trump’s base is sticking with him and keeping his approval rate relatively high in the state overall.”

Job approval ratings for Corker and Trump were combined to get a sense of whom Tennessee voters would favor if the two were pitted against each other. Among state voters who express an opinion about both men, 35 percent approve of Trump and disapprove of Corker. A statistically similar 32 percent approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump. Twenty-one percent approve of both Corker and Trump, and 13 percent disapprove of both.

Other political leaders

As for approval of other key political players, the poll also found that:

• 56 percent approve of Gov. Bill Haslam, compared to 57 percent in the spring
• 48 percent approve of the Tennessee Legislature, compared to 50 percent in the spring
• 45 percent approve of Tennessee Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, unchanged from the spring
• 13 percent approve of the U.S. Congress, compared to 21 percent in the spring

Two-thirds at least somewhat aware Trump-Corker conflict

The poll also asked how much Tennessee voters had read or heard about the recent conflict between Corker and Trump. Overall:

• 68 percent say they have read or heard “some” or “a lot” about the conflict
• 31 percent say they have read or heard “only a little” or “nothing at all until now” about the conflict.
• The rest say they don’t know or refuse to respond.

Overall, among Tennessee voters who say they have read or heard “some” or “a lot” about the conflict:

• 40 percent disapprove of Corker and approve of Trump
• 34 percent approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump
• 15 percent approve of both Corker and Trump
• 12 percent disapprove of both.

Among Tennessee voters who said they had read or heard “only a little” or “nothing” about the conflict

• 37 percent approve of both Corker and Trump
• 27 percent approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump
• 22 percent disapprove of Corker and approve of Trump
• 15 percent disapprove of both Trump and Corker

The impact of party affiliation

Among self-identified Democrats (23 percent of the sample) a large, 71 percent majority of those who say they have read or heard “some” or “a lot” about the conflict approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump. Even among Democrats who say they have heard “only a little” or “nothing” about the conflict, a 53 percent majority disapprove of Trump and approve of Corker.

Among self-identified Republicans (35 percent or the sample), a 65 percent majority of those who say they have read or heard “some” or “a lot” about the conflict disapprove of Corker and approve of Trump. But among Republicans who say they have read or heard “only a little” or “nothing” about the conflict, a 56 percent majority approve of both Corker and Trump.

Finally, among the largest group of respondents, who identify as independents or something else (40 percent of the sample), a 40 percent plurality of those who say they have read or heard “some” or a “a lot” about the conflict disapprove of Corker and approve of Trump, followed by 36 percent who approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump.

The largest group of independents who say they have heard “only a little” or “nothing” about the conflict disapprove of both Corker and Trump (30 percent), followed by those who approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump (26 percent).

“It appears that Trump has generally weathered the conflict better than Corker among Tennesseans, with the exception of self-identified Democrats who strongly favor Corker,” said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll, “and perhaps some independents who appear to be disengaged from the story and either disapprove of both or approve of Corker and disapprove of Trump.”

The scientifically valid poll of 600 registered Tennessee voters reached via randomly selected cell and landline phone was conducted Oct. 16-23 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Tennessee’s 11 Electoral College votes were an easy win for President Donald Trump in the November 2016 presidential election, with 61 percent of the popular vote in the state. Now though, only a narrow majority of the state’s voters say they approve of the job he has done as president since taking office in January, according to the latest statewide poll from Middle Tennessee State University.

The latest MTSU Poll of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 12-16 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Trump’s Tennessee “hangover” similar to Obama’s Tennessee “honeymoon”

Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” the poll found that 51 percent approve, 32 percent disapprove, and 17 percent don’t know or don’t answer.

For comparison, when the spring 2009 MTSU Poll was conducted shortly after Barack Obama took office, it asked whether respondents approved of the job he was doing as president and found that 53 percent approved, 27 percent disapproved, and 20 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer.

Those were Obama’s best job approval ratings in Tennessee during his presidency. In most of the polls that followed, around 35 percent of Tennesseans said they approved of the job Obama was doing. Similarly, when asked to look back on Obama’s presidency as a whole in the latest MTSU Poll, only 39 percent said they approve, and 56 percent said they disapprove.

Obama lost the state of Tennessee with only 42 percent of the vote in 2008. Trump won the state with 61 percent of the vote in 2016.

“New presidents often enjoy a so-called honeymoon shortly after winning their first election, when unifying inaugural addresses and a public that hopes for the best contribute to even greater support and job approval than their winning vote totals,” said Jason Reineke, Ph.D., associate director of the poll. “But that doesn’t appear to be the case for Trump.”

“The numbers are very similar, but they represent more of a hangover for Trump, whose job approval at the outset of his presidency is actually worse than his winning vote total in the state,” Reineke said.

Accounting for a surprising win

The fall 2016 MTSU Poll, conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2 of that year, found that 48 percent of all Tennessee voters and 54 percent of decided voters in the state chose Trump at that time. Trump went on to win the election with 61 percent of the vote in Tennessee.

The accuracy of polling about Trump has been in question since his surprise, national Electoral College win. To address this and determine whether Trump supporters were fairly represented in the sample, the spring 2017 MTSU poll asked respondents whom they had voted for in the 2016 presidential election.

Of poll respondents who answered the question and said that they had voted in the presidential race, 60 percent reported voting for Trump, just one percentage point different from the proportion of voters who chose him in the state on Election Day.

Poll respondents who said they had voted in the presidential election were also asked when they had decided on the candidate they chose. According to the results:

• 52 percent decided before the party conventions
• 31 percent decided between the beginning of the conventions and the end of the debates
• 14 percent decided after the debates
• 3 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer

Of those who said they made up their minds after the debates, 58 percent reported voting for Trump, while only 18 percent said they voted for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

“Although Trump had Tennessee wrapped up for some time, it appears that his ability to maintain his gains late in the race helped to increase his margin of victory in the state,” said Reineke

Methodology

Between Feb. 12-16, 2017, Issues & Answers Network Inc. completed 600 telephone surveys for the poll among a random sample of registered Tennessee voters aged 18 and over. Data were collected using a Tennessee statewide voter registration sample with 60 percent landlines and 40 percent cell phones. The average interview length was 13 minutes.

Quotas by gender and Grand Region were implemented. Data were weighted based on respondent age to ensure the data are representative of Tennessee registered voters. Landline numbers represent 58 percent of the completed interviews and 42 percent are from cell phones

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points, meaning one can be 95 percent confident that the population percentage being estimated lies within four percentage points, in either direction, of the result the sample produced.

MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — About a third of Tennessee voters support Gov. Bill Haslam’s proposal to fund road projects through a plan that would increase fuel taxes while cutting grocery and other taxes, but fewer oppose it, and many remain undecided, according to the latest MTSU Poll.

“Support for the plan is fairly low among voters, but that’s not the whole story,” said Ken Blake, Ph.D., director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University. “In a pattern reminiscent of attitudes toward the governor’s ‘Insure Tennessee’ plan two years ago, opposition is fairly low as well, many have read or heard little about the issue and simply have no opinion yet, and support for the plan rises markedly among those who have the most information about it.”

The latest MTSU Poll of 600 registered voters was conducted Feb. 12-16 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In other findings, 57 percent approve of Haslam’s job performance, 50 percent approve of the job the Tennessee General Assembly is doing, and about half of state voters want another Republican to succeed Haslam. By comparison, more like a quarter would prefer a Democratic governor.

Support mixed for gas tax increase

When the current poll asked state voters about the governor’s “proposal to pay for road projects by raising taxes on gas and diesel fuel while cutting other taxes, including taxes on groceries, 38 percent expressed support, 28 percent were opposed – a significantly smaller proportion – and 33 percent said they weren’t sure. The remaining 1 percent declined to answer.

Support appeared significantly higher among the 52 percent of state voters who had read or heard “a lot” or “some” information about the proposal than among the 46 percent who had read or heard “only a little” or “nothing at all” about it.
Among those who had read or heard “a lot” or “some” about the proposal, 51 percent expressed support, 31 percent said they opposed it, and 18 percent said they didn’t know how they felt about it.

By contrast, among those who had read or heard “only a little” or “nothing at all about the proposal, 24 percent expressed support, 24 percent said they opposed it, and 52 percent said they didn’t know how the felt about it.

Asking about the governor’s “Insure Tennessee” health care proposal two years ago, the MTSU Poll found that support measured 34 percent statewide but rose to 49 percent among the third of Tennesseans who had heard about the plan. By contrast, support measured only 26 percent among the two-thirds who had little or no information about the plan. Ultimately, the plan failed to gain traction in the Legislature.

Haslam approval holding at solid majority; Legislature at 50 percent

Fifty-seven percent of Tennessee voters approve “of the way Bill Haslam is handling his job as governor,” a figure virtually unchanged from his 58 percent approval ratings in the Spring 2016 and Fall 2016 editions of the MTSU Poll. Twenty-three percent express disapproval of the governor, and 19 percent don’t know.

Approval of Haslam measures 64 percent among Republicans, 60 percent among independents, and 46 percent among Democrats.
“MTSU Polls conducted during the administration of Haslam’s Democratic predecessor, Phil Bredesen, also tended to find relatively high bipartisan approval,” Blake said.

Meanwhile, 50 percent approve of “the way the state Legislature is handing its job,” while 27 percent disapprove, and 22 percent don’t know. The remaining 1 percent declined to answer. Approval of the Legislature is about the same as it was throughout 2016.

About half of state voters want a Republican as their next governor

Fifty-one percent of state voters prefer that the governor elected next year to replace Haslam, who is in his second and final term, be either a “conservative Republican” (33 percent) or a “moderate Republican” (18 percent).

Approximately a quarter (23 percent) would like either a “moderate Democrat” (14 percent) or a “progressive Democrat” (9 percent). Ten percent prefer “something else,” and a sizable 14 percent don’t know. The rest refused to answer.

“A Republican candidate would enter the race with a pretty stiff tail wind,” Blake said. “But recent history suggests a moderate from either party can build and maintain a winning coalition.”

Methodology

Between Feb. 12-16, 2017, Issues & Answers Network Inc. completed 600 telephone surveys for the poll among a random sample of registered Tennessee voters aged 18 and over. Data were collected using a Tennessee statewide voter registration sample with 60 percent landlines and 40 percent cell phones. The average interview length was 13 minutes.

Quotas by gender and Grand Region were implemented. Data were weighted based on respondent age to ensure the data are representative of Tennessee registered voters. Landline numbers represent 58 percent of the completed interviews and 42 percent are from cell phones

The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points, meaning one can be 95 percent confident that the population percentage being estimated lies within four percentage points, in either direction, of the result the sample produced.